🔗 Share this article

Mounting apprehensions exist regarding the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has ratcheted up in recent weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. After a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive sea border, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict started in which numerous people were killed.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to concise remarks on X from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea calling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking former lands.

Government spokespeople alerted on recently that attempts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The head of human resources department of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Past Origins of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British administration before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 the ruler terminated this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war ensued, ending with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their mutual frontier, causing hostilities in 1998.

Though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations stayed at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a action that won the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have since broken down anew.